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Este vs Tamai — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
PST
13:00
Tamai
Tamai
4/9/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 35Nuovo Stadio Comunale (Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Este55%
×Draw26%
Tamai19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.52
Tamai
0.79

Este creates 92% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 13 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Tamai
0.54

allows per match

Este
1.03
Tamai
1.69

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Tamai+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Tamai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Este or draw
81%
Este or Tamai
74%
Draw or Tamai
45%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
28%
Tamai wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
78%
Este 2+ goals
45%
Este 3+ goals
20%
Tamai 1+ goals
55%
Tamai 2+ goals
19%
Tamai 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
74%
Tamai (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Tamai away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Tamai defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tamai attack 0.54 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Este scores more
55%
level
26%
Tamai scores more
19%

Este at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Este vs Tamai — Match Preview

Este face Tamai on April 9, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Este host Tamai at Nuovo Stadio Comunale (Este).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.