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Este vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mestre
Mestre
11/5/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Este43%
×Draw28%
Mestre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.27
Mestre
0.98

Este creates 30% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Este
1.03
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Este or draw
71%
Este or Mestre
72%
Draw or Mestre
57%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
19%
Mestre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
72%
Este 2+ goals
36%
Este 3+ goals
14%
Mestre 1+ goals
62%
Mestre 2+ goals
26%
Mestre 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
60%
Mestre (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mestre attack 0.94 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Este scores more
43%
level
28%
Mestre scores more
29%

Este at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Este 2 – 1 Mestre

Este beat Mestre 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Nuovo Stadio Comunale in Este.