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Este vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luparense
Luparense
12/16/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Este41%
×Draw27%
Luparense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.33
Luparense
1.12

Este creates 19% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Este
1.03
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Este or draw
69%
Este or Luparense
73%
Draw or Luparense
59%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
19%
Luparense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
74%
Este 2+ goals
38%
Este 3+ goals
15%
Luparense 1+ goals
67%
Luparense 2+ goals
31%
Luparense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
57%
Luparense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Luparense attack 1.21 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Este scores more
41%
level
27%
Luparense scores more
31%

Este at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Este 0–0 Luparense

Este and Luparense drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Nuovo Stadio Comunale in Este.