Essingen 3–2 CFR Pforzheim: Result & Stats

Essingen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

CFR Pforzheim

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Schönbrunnen Stadion Essingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Essingen36%

×Draw24%

CFR Pforzheim40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EssingenExpected goals in this matchCFR Pforzheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.60

Essingen

1.51

CFR Pforzheim

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

1.49

creates per match

1.71

1.49

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Essingen

1.49

CFR Pforzheim

1.71

allows per match

Essingen

1.49

CFR Pforzheim

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Essingen+0.00on par

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essingen ↓

CFR Pforzheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Essingen or draw

60%

Essingen or CFR Pforzheim

76%

Draw or CFR Pforzheim

64%

Winning margin

Essingen wins by 2+

17%

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Essingen 1+ goals

78%

Essingen 2+ goals

44%

Essingen 3+ goals

19%

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

80%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

47%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Essingen (draw refunded)

47%

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essingen at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 51 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essingen attack 1.49 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Essingen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Essingen scores more

36%

level

24%

CFR Pforzheim scores more

40%

CFR Pforzheim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff