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Espoir vs Marines — National Soccer League 2019

Espoir
Espoir
CANC
09:00
Marines
Marines
5/17/2020National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Espoir41%
×Draw29%
Marines30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espoir
1.22
Marines
1.00

Espoir creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 95 away

creates per match

Espoir
0.88
Marines
0.89

allows per match

Espoir
1.10
Marines
1.56

finishing

Espoir+0.00on par
Marines+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espoir ↓

Marines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Espoir or draw
70%
Espoir or Marines
71%
Draw or Marines
59%

Winning margin

Espoir wins by 2+
18%
Marines wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Espoir 1+ goals
70%
Espoir 2+ goals
34%
Espoir 3+ goals
12%
Marines 1+ goals
63%
Marines 2+ goals
26%
Marines 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Espoir (draw refunded)
58%
Marines (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espoir at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Marines away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espoir attack 0.88 + Marines defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Marines attack 0.89 + Espoir defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Espoir scores more
41%
level
29%
Marines scores more
30%

Espoir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Espoir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Espoir host Marines

May 17, 2020: Espoir take on Marines in National Soccer League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.