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Esperance Tunis vs Etoile DU Sahel — Cup 2019

Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
5/26/2021CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Esperance Tunis45%
×Draw26%
Etoile DU Sahel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esperance Tunis
1.48
Etoile DU Sahel
1.15

Esperance Tunis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Esperance Tunis
2.33
Etoile DU Sahel
1.63

allows per match

Esperance Tunis
0.67
Etoile DU Sahel
0.63

finishing

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par
Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esperance Tunis ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Esperance Tunis or draw
71%
Esperance Tunis or Etoile DU Sahel
74%
Draw or Etoile DU Sahel
55%

Winning margin

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
22%
Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
77%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
43%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
19%
Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
68%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
32%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
60%
Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esperance Tunis at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esperance Tunis attack 2.33 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.63 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esperance Tunis scores more
45%
level
26%
Etoile DU Sahel scores more
29%

Esperance Tunis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Esperance Tunis 0–1 Etoile DU Sahel

Etoile DU Sahel beat Esperance Tunis 1-0 in Cup on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.