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Espanyol W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Espanyol W
Espanyol W
Preview
16:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
2/7/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 19Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque
Big match
46%
Real Sociedad W
model favours
29%24%46%

Real Sociedad W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Espanyol W29%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol W
1.27
Real Sociedad W
1.66

Real Sociedad W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 119 away

creates per match

Espanyol W
1.07
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Espanyol W
1.67
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Espanyol W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Espanyol W or draw
54%
Espanyol W or Real Sociedad W
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
71%

Winning margin

Espanyol W wins by 2+
12%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Espanyol W 1+ goals
72%
Espanyol W 2+ goals
36%
Espanyol W 3+ goals
14%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
81%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
49%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Espanyol W (draw refunded)
39%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol W attack 1.07 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Espanyol W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Espanyol W scores more
29%
level
24%
Real Sociedad W scores more
46%

Real Sociedad W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DDDLL
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Espanyol W vs Real Sociedad W — Match Preview

Espanyol W face Real Sociedad W on February 7, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Espanyol W host Real Sociedad W at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.