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Espanyol W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Espanyol W
Espanyol W
Preview
15:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
9/20/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 4Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque
Big match
39%
Espanyol W
model favours
39%24%37%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Espanyol W39%
×Draw24%
Madrid CFF W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol W
1.60
Madrid CFF W
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 119 away

creates per match

Espanyol W
1.07
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Espanyol W
1.67
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Espanyol W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Espanyol W or draw
63%
Espanyol W or Madrid CFF W
76%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
61%

Winning margin

Espanyol W wins by 2+
19%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Espanyol W 1+ goals
80%
Espanyol W 2+ goals
47%
Espanyol W 3+ goals
22%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
79%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
46%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Espanyol W (draw refunded)
51%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol W attack 1.07 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Espanyol W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Espanyol W scores more
39%
level
24%
Madrid CFF W scores more
37%

Espanyol W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Espanyol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DDDLL
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Espanyol W face Madrid CFF W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Espanyol W hosting Madrid CFF W. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Espanyol W host Madrid CFF W at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.