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Espanyol W vs Atletico Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2020

Espanyol W
Espanyol W
Preview
15:00
Atletico Madrid W
Atletico Madrid W
4/4/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque
Big match
52%
Atletico Madrid W
model favours
24%24%52%

Espanyol W win just 8% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Espanyol W24%
×Draw24%
Atletico Madrid W52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol W
1.10
Atletico Madrid W
1.75

Atletico Madrid W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 93 away

creates per match

Espanyol W
1.17
Atletico Madrid W
1.77

allows per match

Espanyol W
1.72
Atletico Madrid W
1.04

finishing

Espanyol W+0.00on par
Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Espanyol W or draw
48%
Espanyol W or Atletico Madrid W
76%
Draw or Atletico Madrid W
76%

Winning margin

Espanyol W wins by 2+
9%
Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Espanyol W 1+ goals
67%
Espanyol W 2+ goals
30%
Espanyol W 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals
83%
Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Espanyol W (draw refunded)
31%
Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 47 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.04 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol W attack 1.17 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.77 + Espanyol W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Espanyol W scores more
24%
level
24%
Atletico Madrid W scores more
52%

Atletico Madrid W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DDDLL
W
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Espanyol W host Atletico Madrid W

April 4, 2027: Espanyol W take on Atletico Madrid W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Espanyol W host Atletico Madrid W at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.