Espanyol 4–3 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspanyolExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.30

Espanyol

1.58

Levante

1.30

Espanyol creates 22% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

1.18

1.43

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Espanyol

1.45

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Espanyol

1.43

Levante

1.71

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Espanyol-0.36scores less

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw

69%

Espanyol or Levante

75%

Draw or Levante

56%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+

22%

Levante wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals

79%

Espanyol 2+ goals

47%

Espanyol 3+ goals

21%

Levante 1+ goals

73%

Levante 2+ goals

37%

Levante 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)

58%

Levante (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 22 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.45 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Levante attack 1.18 + Espanyol defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Espanyol scores more

44%

level

25%

Levante scores more

31%

Espanyol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Jorge de Frutos

Levante · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

Darder

9'

Yangel Herrera

11'

Jorge de Frutos↳ Roger Martí

26'

Son↳ Jorge de Frutos

36'

Adrián Embarba

49'

Raúl de Tomás↳ Y. Herrera

57'

Morales↳ Jorge de Frutos

58'

Aleix Vidal

60'

Javi Puado↳ Sergi Gómez

62'

Nico Melamed← Manu Morlanes

62'

Melendo← Adri Embarba

66'

José Campaña

68'

Shkodran Mustafi

69'

Cantero← Morales

69'

Soldado← Roger Martí

74'

Melero← Campaña

76'

78'

80'

80'

81'

84'

Pepelu← E. Bardhi

84'

Coke← M. Malsa

86'

Roberto Soldado

89'

Loren Morón← Raúl de Tomás

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EspanyolLevante

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots14

4Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots14

8On Target5

6Off Target7

3Blocked2

8Inside Box10

9Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

456Total Passes419

385Accurate Passes346

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Espanyol vs Levante

Espanyol beat Levante 4-3 in La Liga on December 11, 2021.

Goals: Darder (6'), Jorge de Frutos (11'), Son (26'), Raúl de Tomás (49'), Morales (57'), Javi Puado (60', 76').

Espanyol controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.

Espanyol vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Espanyol vs Levante