Espanyol 1–0 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Espanyol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

Sergio García 52'

9/16/2018

La Liga · Round 4RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Espanyol44%

×Draw25%

Levante31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspanyolExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.30

Espanyol

1.58

Levante

1.30

Espanyol creates 22% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

1.18

1.43

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Espanyol

1.45

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Espanyol

1.43

Levante

1.71

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Espanyol-0.36scores less

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw

69%

Espanyol or Levante

75%

Draw or Levante

56%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+

22%

Levante wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals

79%

Espanyol 2+ goals

47%

Espanyol 3+ goals

21%

Levante 1+ goals

73%

Levante 2+ goals

37%

Levante 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)

58%

Levante (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 22 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.45 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Levante attack 1.18 + Espanyol defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Espanyol scores more

44%

level

25%

Levante scores more

31%

Espanyol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Oier

Levante · G

8.1

Match Events

52'

Sergio García↳ Borja Iglesias

61'

Chema

63'

Sergio Postigo← Chema

65'

Borja Mayoral← E. Boateng

72'

P. Piatti← Sergio García

77'

Víctor Sánchez← Sergi Darder

83'

Rubén Rochina← Jason

84'

H. Pérez← Borja Iglesias

90'

Didac Vila

90'

Antonio Luna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EspanyolLevante

Overview

57%Possession43%

23Total Shots16

5Corners4

17Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots16

9On Target4

12Off Target8

2Blocked4

10Inside Box9

13Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

436Total Passes322

361Accurate Passes249

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

17Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0