Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eskilstuna United W vs Uppsala W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Eskilstuna United W
Eskilstuna United W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Uppsala W
Uppsala W
8/3/2020DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 8Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Eskilstuna United W57%
×Draw22%
Uppsala W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskilstuna United W
1.94
Uppsala W
1.11

Eskilstuna United W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 30 away

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W
1.39
Uppsala W
1.10

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W
1.12
Uppsala W
2.50

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par
Uppsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Uppsala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw
79%
Eskilstuna United W or Uppsala W
78%
Draw or Uppsala W
43%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+
33%
Uppsala W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals
86%
Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals
58%
Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals
30%
Uppsala W 1+ goals
67%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
30%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)
72%
Uppsala W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Uppsala W away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.39 + Uppsala W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Uppsala W attack 1.10 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more
57%
level
22%
Uppsala W scores more
21%

Eskilstuna United W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskilstuna United W vs Uppsala W

Uppsala W beat Eskilstuna United W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on August 3, 2020.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.