Eskilstuna United W vs Brommapojkarna W

Eskilstuna United W

Preview

14:00

Brommapojkarna W

10/24/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 23Tunavallen

54%

Eskilstuna United W

model favours

54%24%22%

Brommapojkarna W score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Eskilstuna United W54%

×Draw24%

Brommapojkarna W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchBrommapojkarna W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.03

Eskilstuna United W

1.76

Brommapojkarna W

1.03

Eskilstuna United W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 60 away

1.39

creates per match

0.93

1.12

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.39

Brommapojkarna W

0.93

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.12

Brommapojkarna W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Brommapojkarna W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

78%

Eskilstuna United W or Brommapojkarna W

76%

Draw or Brommapojkarna W

46%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

30%

Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

83%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

52%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

26%

Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals

64%

Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals

28%

Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

71%

Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.39 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

Brommapojkarna W attack 0.93 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

54%

level

24%

Brommapojkarna W scores more

22%

Eskilstuna United W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

73% of Brommapojkarna W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Eskilstuna United W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
Brommapojkarna W win just 10% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LWDDL

W

LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff