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Eskhata vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Eskhata
Eskhata
Preview
12:00
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
10/17/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 19
41%
Regar-TadAZ
model favours
32%28%41%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Eskhata32%
×Draw28%
Regar-TadAZ41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskhata
1.10
Regar-TadAZ
1.29

Regar-TadAZ creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

creates per match

Eskhata
1.17
Regar-TadAZ
1.17

allows per match

Eskhata
1.42
Regar-TadAZ
1.04

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw
59%
Eskhata or Regar-TadAZ
72%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
68%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+
12%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals
67%
Eskhata 2+ goals
30%
Eskhata 3+ goals
10%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
72%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
37%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)
44%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.17 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.17 + Eskhata defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eskhata scores more
32%
level
28%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
41%

Regar-TadAZ at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Eskhata
LLWDD
Regar-TadAZ
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eskhata vs Regar-TadAZ — Match Preview

Eskhata face Regar-TadAZ on October 17, 2026 in this Vysshaya Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.