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Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
17:00
Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
11/1/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 13Esenler Stadium
46%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
46%26%29%

Keçiörengücü win just 25% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor46%
×Draw26%
Keçiörengücü29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.51
Keçiörengücü
1.14

Esenler Erokspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 125 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Keçiörengücü
1.19

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Keçiörengücü
1.25

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Keçiörengücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
71%
Esenler Erokspor or Keçiörengücü
74%
Draw or Keçiörengücü
54%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
23%
Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
78%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
44%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
19%
Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
68%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
32%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
61%
Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Keçiörengücü away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Keçiörengücü attack 1.19 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
46%
level
26%
Keçiörengücü scores more
29%

Esenler Erokspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Keçiörengücü fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 2.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Esenler Erokspor
Possession-dominant
Keçiörengücü
Balanced
58%Possession49%
82%Pass accuracy79%
14.6ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.88xG2.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Esenler EroksporKeçiörengücü

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Esenler Erokspor
3
Draws
0
Keçiörengücü
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 75%
1–01–12–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
Keçiörengücü
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esenler Erokspor face Keçiörengücü (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Esenler Erokspor hosting Keçiörengücü. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Esenler Erokspor host Keçiörengücü at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.