Esenler Erokspor vs İstanbulspor

Esenler Erokspor

Preview

17:00

İstanbulspor

2/28/2027

1. Lig · Round 28Esenler Stadium

Big match

44%

Esenler Erokspor

model favours

44%25%31%

İstanbulspor win just 26% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor44%

×Draw25%

İstanbulspor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Esenler Erokspor

1.51

İstanbulspor

1.23

Esenler Erokspor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 110 away

1.77

creates per match

1.39

1.08

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.77

İstanbulspor

1.39

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.08

İstanbulspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

69%

Esenler Erokspor or İstanbulspor

75%

Draw or İstanbulspor

56%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

22%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

78%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

44%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

19%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

71%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

35%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

59%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + İstanbulspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

İstanbulspor attack 1.39 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

44%

level

25%

İstanbulspor scores more

31%

Esenler Erokspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals
Esenler Erokspor fall short of their xG (1.7 vs 2.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Esenler Erokspor

Possession-dominant

İstanbulspor

Balanced

55%Possession49%

81%Pass accuracy78%

13.4Shots11.1

2.04xGBiggest gap1.21

Esenler Eroksporİstanbulspor

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Esenler Erokspor

0

Draws

3

İstanbulspor

Avg goals: 4BTTS: 40%

4–15–00–30–41–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Erokspor

LDLWW

İstanbulspor

LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff