Escorpiones Belén 2–1 Turrialba Fc: Result & Stats

Escorpiones Belén

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Turrialba Fc

3/9/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 12Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Escorpiones Belén63%

×Draw19%

Turrialba Fc18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Escorpiones BelénExpected goals in this matchTurrialba Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.19

Escorpiones Belén

2.38

Turrialba Fc

1.19

Escorpiones Belén creates 100% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 101 away

2.37

creates per match

0.86

1.52

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén

2.37

Turrialba Fc

0.86

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén

1.52

Turrialba Fc

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Turrialba Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw

82%

Escorpiones Belén or Turrialba Fc

81%

Draw or Turrialba Fc

37%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

41%

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

91%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

68%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

42%

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals

70%

Turrialba Fc 2+ goals

33%

Turrialba Fc 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

78%

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.38

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more

63%

level

19%

Turrialba Fc scores more

18%

Escorpiones Belén at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff