Escorpiones Belén 2–1 Cariari Pococi

Escorpiones Belén

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cariari Pococi

4/2/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 17Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Escorpiones Belén53%

×Draw21%

Cariari Pococi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Escorpiones BelénExpected goals in this matchCariari Pococi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.38

Escorpiones Belén

2.08

Cariari Pococi

1.38

Escorpiones Belén creates 51% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 107 away

2.37

creates per match

1.23

1.52

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén

2.37

Cariari Pococi

1.23

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén

1.52

Cariari Pococi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Cariari Pococi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw

75%

Escorpiones Belén or Cariari Pococi

79%

Draw or Cariari Pococi

47%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

32%

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

87%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

61%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

34%

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

75%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

40%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

68%

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more

53%

level

21%

Cariari Pococi scores more

25%

Escorpiones Belén at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff