Escobedo 1–0 Gimnástica Torrelavega: Result & Stats

Escobedo

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnástica Torrelavega

9/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Estadio Eusebio Arce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Escobedo39%

×Draw26%

Gimnástica Torrelavega36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscobedoExpected goals in this matchGimnástica Torrelavega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.33

Escobedo

1.40

Gimnástica Torrelavega

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 59 away

2.05

creates per match

1.68

0.99

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Escobedo

2.05

Gimnástica Torrelavega

1.68

allows per match

Escobedo

0.99

Gimnástica Torrelavega

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escobedo+0.00on par

Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escobedo ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Escobedo or draw

64%

Escobedo or Gimnástica Torrelavega

74%

Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega

61%

Winning margin

Escobedo wins by 2+

18%

Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Escobedo 1+ goals

75%

Escobedo 2+ goals

41%

Escobedo 3+ goals

17%

Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals

74%

Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals

38%

Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Escobedo (draw refunded)

52%

Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Escobedo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.99 · 92 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Escobedo attack 2.05 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Escobedo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Escobedo scores more

39%

level

26%

Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more

36%

Escobedo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escobedo vs Gimnástica Torrelavega

Escobedo beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Eusebio Arce in Escobedo.

Escobedo vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Escobedo vs Gimnástica Torrelavega