Escazucena 3–2 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Escazucena

FT

3 – 2

Santa Ana

A. Suarez 89'

J. Alcocer 37'

J. Ramirez 32'

G. Alan 84'

R. Taylor 60' (pen)

9/15/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Escazucena43%

×Draw26%

Santa Ana32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EscazucenaExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.23

Escazucena

1.48

Santa Ana

1.23

Escazucena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 110 away

1.51

creates per match

1.41

1.06

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Escazucena

1.51

Santa Ana

1.41

allows per match

Escazucena

1.06

Santa Ana

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Santa Ana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw

68%

Escazucena or Santa Ana

74%

Draw or Santa Ana

57%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+

21%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals

77%

Escazucena 2+ goals

43%

Escazucena 3+ goals

19%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

71%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

35%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)

58%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Santa Ana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Santa Ana attack 1.41 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Escazucena scores more

43%

level

26%

Santa Ana scores more

32%

Escazucena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. Ramirez

37'

J. Alcocer

60'

R. TaylorPenalty

79'

84'

G. Alan

85'

89'

A. Suarez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff