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Escazucena vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
2/20/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Escazucena42%
×Draw25%
Escorpiones Belén33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.51
Escorpiones Belén
1.33

Escazucena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 87 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
67%
Escazucena or Escorpiones Belén
75%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
58%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
20%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
78%
Escazucena 2+ goals
44%
Escazucena 3+ goals
19%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
74%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
38%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
55%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.51

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Escazucena scores more
42%
level
25%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
33%

Escazucena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escazucena 2–1 Escorpiones Belén

Escazucena beat Escorpiones Belén 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.