Esbjerg 0–1 Hvidovre: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Esbjerg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hvidovre

S. Makienok 82'

3/9/2025

1. Division · Round 21Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Esbjerg39%

×Draw26%

Hvidovre35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchHvidovre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Esbjerg

1.40

Hvidovre

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 112 away

1.45

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Esbjerg

1.45

Hvidovre

1.28

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.34

Hvidovre

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Hvidovre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Hvidovre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

65%

Esbjerg or Hvidovre

74%

Draw or Hvidovre

61%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

18%

Hvidovre wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

75%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

41%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

17%

Hvidovre 1+ goals

73%

Hvidovre 2+ goals

38%

Hvidovre 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

53%

Hvidovre (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

Hvidovre away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.45 + Hvidovre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hvidovre attack 1.28 + Esbjerg defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Esbjerg scores more

39%

level

26%

Hvidovre scores more

35%

Esbjerg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Buus

33'

J. Gemmer

46'

M. Spelmann← J. Gemmer

65'

L. From← P. Bjur

66'

J. Lucena← M. Maden

70'

S. Makienok← J. Adjei-Broni

70'

J. Singh← A. Smed

78'

J. Ankersen← A. Lausen

79'

A. Iljazovski← N. Clausen

82'

S. Makienok↳ J. Singh

Esbjerg

Hvidovre

1

Sander

2

Stenderup

25

Kiilerich

23

▼

Clausen

30

Fredslund

6

▼

Gemmer

14

Jakobsen

8

Krogstad

22

▼

Smed

9

Høgh

16

▼

1

2

3

15

21

5

11

▼

Bjur

12

▼

Lausen

8

▼

Maden

17

Beck

14

Freriks

Manager: L. Sørensen

65'▲L. From←▼P. Bjur

66'▲J. Lucena←▼M. Maden

78'▲J. Ankersen←▼A. Lausen

Esbjerg substitutes

7From38Lucena9Ankersen31Jensen27Baldursson19Kvist32Blicher16Kristensen

Manager: P. Frandsen

46'▲M. Spelmann←▼J. Gemmer

70'▲S. Makienok←▼J. Adjei-Broni

70'▲J. Singh←▼A. Smed

79'▲A. Iljazovski←▼N. Clausen

Hvidovre substitutes

10Spelmann24Makienok7Singh15Iljazovski26Jensen28Jungvig21Meibom4Aliji29Ravn