Esbjerg 2–2 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Esbjerg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Aarhus Fremad

3/24/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 19Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg50%

×Draw22%

Aarhus Fremad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.36

Esbjerg

1.92

Aarhus Fremad

1.36

Esbjerg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 82 away

2.71

creates per match

1.62

1.10

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Esbjerg

2.71

Aarhus Fremad

1.62

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.10

Aarhus Fremad

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

73%

Esbjerg or Aarhus Fremad

78%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

50%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

29%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

85%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

57%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

30%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

74%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

39%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

65%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.62 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esbjerg scores more

50%

level

22%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

27%

Esbjerg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff