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Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
M. Kubel 86'
J. Fechtenburg 42'
3/5/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 21Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg51%
×Draw22%
Aarhus Fremad27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
1.93
Aarhus Fremad
1.36

Esbjerg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 81 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
2.71
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.10
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
73%
Esbjerg or Aarhus Fremad
78%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
49%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
29%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
85%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
57%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
30%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
74%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
39%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
65%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.93

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Esbjerg scores more
51%
level
22%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
27%

Esbjerg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
J. Fechtenburg
86'
M. Kubel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Esbjerg 0–2 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Esbjerg 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 5, 2023.

Goals: J. Fechtenburg (42'), M. Kubel (86').

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.