Esan Pattaya 2–2 Chiangmai United: Result & Stats

Esan Pattaya

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chiangmai United

11/11/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 12Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya40%

×Draw27%

Chiangmai United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchChiangmai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

Esan Pattaya

1.35

Chiangmai United

1.19

Esan Pattaya creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 103 away

1.32

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.32

Chiangmai United

1.19

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.20

Chiangmai United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Chiangmai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

67%

Esan Pattaya or Chiangmai United

73%

Draw or Chiangmai United

60%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

19%

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

74%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

39%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

15%

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

70%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

33%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

55%

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Chiangmai United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Chiangmai United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chiangmai United attack 1.19 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

40%

level

27%

Chiangmai United scores more

33%

Esan Pattaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff