Esan Pattaya 3–2 Chainat: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Esan Pattaya

FT

3 – 2

Chainat

10/27/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundNong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esan Pattaya67%

×Draw19%

Chainat14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esan PattayaExpected goals in this matchChainat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.88

Esan Pattaya

2.21

Chainat

0.88

Esan Pattaya creates 151% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Esan Pattaya

1.67

Chainat

0.75

allows per match

Esan Pattaya

1.00

Chainat

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Chainat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw

86%

Esan Pattaya or Chainat

81%

Draw or Chainat

33%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

44%

Chainat wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

89%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

65%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

38%

Chainat 1+ goals

59%

Chainat 2+ goals

22%

Chainat 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

83%

Chainat (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Chainat away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.67 + Chainat defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Chainat attack 0.75 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more

67%

level

19%

Chainat scores more

14%

Esan Pattaya at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff