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Esae vs AS Sobemap — Championnat National 2019

Esae
Esae
PST
15:00
AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
4/12/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 22Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Esae43%
×Draw32%
AS Sobemap25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esae
1.08
AS Sobemap
0.76

Esae creates 42% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 108 away

creates per match

Esae
1.19
AS Sobemap
0.94

allows per match

Esae
0.59
AS Sobemap
0.98

finishing

Esae+0.00on par
AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esae ↓

AS Sobemap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esae or draw
75%
Esae or AS Sobemap
68%
Draw or AS Sobemap
57%

Winning margin

Esae wins by 2+
17%
AS Sobemap wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esae 1+ goals
66%
Esae 2+ goals
29%
Esae 3+ goals
10%
AS Sobemap 1+ goals
53%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
18%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esae (draw refunded)
63%
AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esae at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.98 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esae attack 1.19 + AS Sobemap defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Esae defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Esae scores more
43%
level
32%
AS Sobemap scores more
25%

Esae at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Esae will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esae face AS Sobemap (Championnat National)

Championnat National returns with Esae hosting AS Sobemap. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Esae host AS Sobemap at Stade Cotonou II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.