ES Zarzis 1–0 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats

ES Zarzis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Gabesien

Z. Ounalli 55'

5/21/2017

League #202 · Relegation Round - 14Stade Jlidi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

ES Zarzis45%

×Draw31%

Stade Gabesien24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES ZarzisExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.76

ES Zarzis

1.17

Stade Gabesien

0.76

ES Zarzis creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

1.11

creates per match

0.67

0.84

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

ES Zarzis

1.11

Stade Gabesien

0.67

allows per match

ES Zarzis

0.84

Stade Gabesien

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw

76%

ES Zarzis or Stade Gabesien

69%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

55%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

20%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

69%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

33%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

11%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

53%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

18%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

66%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.11 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stade Gabesien attack 0.67 + ES Zarzis defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ES Zarzis scores more

45%

level

31%

Stade Gabesien scores more

24%

ES Zarzis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Z. Ounalli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff