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ES Zarzis vs JS Kairouanaise — League #202 2026

ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
11/22/2017League #202League #202 · Round 11Stade Jlidi (Zarzis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

ES Zarzis53%
×Draw28%
JS Kairouanaise19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Zarzis
1.38
JS Kairouanaise
0.71

ES Zarzis creates 94% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

creates per match

ES Zarzis
1.08
JS Kairouanaise
0.58

allows per match

ES Zarzis
0.85
JS Kairouanaise
1.67

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw
81%
ES Zarzis or JS Kairouanaise
72%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
47%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+
26%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals
75%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
40%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
16%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
51%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
16%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
73%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 59 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.08 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + ES Zarzis defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ES Zarzis scores more
53%
level
28%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
19%

ES Zarzis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ES Zarzis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Zarzis vs JS Kairouanaise

ES Zarzis and JS Kairouanaise drew 0-0 in League #202 on November 22, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Jlidi (Zarzis).