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ES Hammam-Sousse vs M'saken — Ligue 2 2020

ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
M'saken
M'saken
R. Chikhaoui 43'
A. Ben Said 22'
M. Sassi 20' (pen)
S. Ktayeb 65'
A. Ben Romdhane 1'
12/16/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ES Hammam-Sousse54%
×Draw27%
M'saken19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.41
M'saken
0.71

ES Hammam-Sousse creates 99% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
1.62
M'saken
0.63

allows per match

ES Hammam-Sousse
0.78
M'saken
1.20

finishing

ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Hammam-Sousse ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

ES Hammam-Sousse or draw
81%
ES Hammam-Sousse or M'saken
73%
Draw or M'saken
46%

Winning margin

ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
27%
M'saken wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
76%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
41%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
17%
M'saken 1+ goals
51%
M'saken 2+ goals
16%
M'saken 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
74%
M'saken (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Hammam-Sousse at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.62 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

M'saken attack 0.63 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
54%
level
27%
M'saken scores more
19%

ES Hammam-Sousse at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ES Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Ben Romdhane
20'
M. SassiPenalty
22'
A. Ben Said
43'
R. Chikhaoui
65'
S. Ktayeb
77'
R. Azouz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ES Hammam-Sousse vs M'saken

ES Hammam-Sousse beat M'saken 3-2 in Ligue 2 on December 16, 2023.

Goals: A. Ben Romdhane (1'), M. Sassi (20' pen), A. Ben Said (22'), R. Chikhaoui (43'), S. Ktayeb (65').

The match was played at Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar in Hammam-Sousse.