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Erzurumspor FK vs Ümraniyespor — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
7/18/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 34Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Erzurumspor FK48%
×Draw26%
Ümraniyespor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.53
Ümraniyespor
1.05

Erzurumspor FK creates 46% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 125 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Ümraniyespor
1.16

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Ümraniyespor
1.42

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
74%
Erzurumspor FK or Ümraniyespor
74%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
52%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
25%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
78%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
45%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
20%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
65%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
28%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
65%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
48%
level
26%
Ümraniyespor scores more
26%

Erzurumspor FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Ümraniyespor

Erzurumspor FK beat Ümraniyespor 4-1 in 1. Lig on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.