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Erzeni Shijak vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
2/8/20201st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Erzeni Shijak34%
×Draw30%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.03
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 23 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.09

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.87

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
64%
Erzeni Shijak or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
70%
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
66%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
13%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
64%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
28%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
9%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
66%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
29%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
48%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.09 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
34%
level
30%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
36%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzeni Shijak vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Erzeni Shijak 1-0 in 1st Division on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.