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Erkenschwick vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
11/12/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erkenschwick35%
×Draw23%
Westfalia Rhynern42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erkenschwick
1.60
Westfalia Rhynern
1.78

Westfalia Rhynern creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 88 away

creates per match

Erkenschwick
1.69
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Erkenschwick
1.71
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Erkenschwick+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erkenschwick ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Erkenschwick or draw
58%
Erkenschwick or Westfalia Rhynern
77%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
65%

Winning margin

Erkenschwick wins by 2+
17%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Erkenschwick 1+ goals
80%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
47%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
22%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
83%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
53%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
45%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erkenschwick at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erkenschwick attack 1.69 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Erkenschwick defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Erkenschwick scores more
35%
level
23%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
42%

Westfalia Rhynern at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erkenschwick vs Westfalia Rhynern

Erkenschwick and Westfalia Rhynern drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse in Oer-Erkenschwick.