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Erchim vs Khoromkhon — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Khoromkhon
Khoromkhon
4/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Erchim60%
×Draw17%
Khoromkhon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
3.02
Khoromkhon
1.89

Erchim creates 60% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 57 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Khoromkhon
2.00

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Khoromkhon
3.56

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Khoromkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Khoromkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
77%
Erchim or Khoromkhon
83%
Draw or Khoromkhon
40%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
40%
Khoromkhon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
95%
Erchim 2+ goals
80%
Erchim 3+ goals
57%
Khoromkhon 1+ goals
85%
Khoromkhon 2+ goals
56%
Khoromkhon 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
72%
Khoromkhon (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Khoromkhon away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Khoromkhon defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 3.02

Khoromkhon attack 2.00 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Erchim scores more
60%
level
17%
Khoromkhon scores more
23%

Erchim at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erchim vs Khoromkhon

Erchim beat Khoromkhon 6-1 in Premier League on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.