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Erchim vs Deren — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Deren
Deren
10/29/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Erchim32%
×Draw20%
Deren47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
1.81
Deren
2.22

Deren creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 80 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Deren
2.66

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Deren
1.16

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Deren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
53%
Erchim or Deren
80%
Draw or Deren
68%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
16%
Deren wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
84%
Erchim 2+ goals
54%
Erchim 3+ goals
27%
Deren 1+ goals
89%
Deren 2+ goals
65%
Deren 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
40%
Deren (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Deren attack 2.66 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Erchim scores more
32%
level
20%
Deren scores more
47%

Deren at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erchim vs Deren

Deren beat Erchim 3-2 in Premier League on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.