Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Erbil vs Al Diwaniya — Iraqi League 2020

Erbil
Erbil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
11/22/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4Franso Hariri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erbil57%
×Draw25%
Al Diwaniya18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbil
1.59
Al Diwaniya
0.78

Erbil creates 104% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

creates per match

Erbil
1.31
Al Diwaniya
0.58

allows per match

Erbil
0.99
Al Diwaniya
1.88

finishing

Erbil+0.00on par
Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbil ↓

Al Diwaniya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Erbil or draw
82%
Erbil or Al Diwaniya
75%
Draw or Al Diwaniya
43%

Winning margin

Erbil wins by 2+
30%
Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Erbil 1+ goals
80%
Erbil 2+ goals
47%
Erbil 3+ goals
21%
Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
54%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
18%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Erbil (draw refunded)
76%
Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbil at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 112 matches

Al Diwaniya away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbil attack 1.31 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al Diwaniya attack 0.58 + Erbil defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Erbil scores more
57%
level
25%
Al Diwaniya scores more
18%

Erbil at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erbil vs Al Diwaniya

Erbil beat Al Diwaniya 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Franso Hariri Stadium in Arbil.