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Erbaaspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Erbaaspor
Erbaaspor
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fatsa Belediyespor
Fatsa Belediyespor
9/12/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundErbaa İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Erbaaspor49%
×Draw30%
Fatsa Belediyespor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erbaaspor
1.23
Fatsa Belediyespor
0.70

Erbaaspor creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Erbaaspor
1.20
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.00

allows per match

Erbaaspor
0.40
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.25

finishing

Erbaaspor+0.00on par
Fatsa Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erbaaspor ↓

Fatsa Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Erbaaspor or draw
79%
Erbaaspor or Fatsa Belediyespor
70%
Draw or Fatsa Belediyespor
51%

Winning margin

Erbaaspor wins by 2+
22%
Fatsa Belediyespor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Erbaaspor 1+ goals
71%
Erbaaspor 2+ goals
35%
Erbaaspor 3+ goals
13%
Fatsa Belediyespor 1+ goals
50%
Fatsa Belediyespor 2+ goals
16%
Fatsa Belediyespor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Erbaaspor (draw refunded)
70%
Fatsa Belediyespor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erbaaspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Fatsa Belediyespor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erbaaspor attack 1.20 + Fatsa Belediyespor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fatsa Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Erbaaspor defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Erbaaspor scores more
49%
level
30%
Fatsa Belediyespor scores more
21%

Erbaaspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erbaaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erbaaspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor

Erbaaspor and Fatsa Belediyespor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Erbaa İlçe Stadyumu in Erbaa.