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EPS vs KaaPo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

EPS
EPS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
KaaPo
KaaPo
6/16/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 8Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 (Espoo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

EPS47%
×Draw22%
KaaPo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS
1.90
KaaPo
1.49

EPS creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

EPS
1.88
KaaPo
1.57

allows per match

EPS
1.41
KaaPo
1.91

finishing

EPS+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

EPS or draw
70%
EPS or KaaPo
78%
Draw or KaaPo
53%

Winning margin

EPS wins by 2+
26%
KaaPo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

EPS 1+ goals
85%
EPS 2+ goals
56%
EPS 3+ goals
29%
KaaPo 1+ goals
77%
KaaPo 2+ goals
44%
KaaPo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

EPS (draw refunded)
61%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

KaaPo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS attack 1.88 + KaaPo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

KaaPo attack 1.57 + EPS defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

EPS scores more
47%
level
22%
KaaPo scores more
30%

EPS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "EPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: EPS 0–2 KaaPo

KaaPo beat EPS 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 (Espoo).