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EPS vs Honka Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

EPS
EPS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
9/14/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 19Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 (Espoo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

EPS40%
×Draw24%
Honka Akatemia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EPS
1.59
Honka Akatemia
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 56 away

creates per match

EPS
1.88
Honka Akatemia
1.57

allows per match

EPS
1.41
Honka Akatemia
1.30

finishing

EPS+0.00on par
Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EPS ↓

Honka Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

EPS or draw
64%
EPS or Honka Akatemia
76%
Draw or Honka Akatemia
60%

Winning margin

EPS wins by 2+
20%
Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

EPS 1+ goals
80%
EPS 2+ goals
47%
EPS 3+ goals
21%
Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
77%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
44%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

EPS (draw refunded)
53%
Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EPS at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EPS attack 1.88 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + EPS defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

EPS scores more
40%
level
24%
Honka Akatemia scores more
36%

EPS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "EPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EPS vs Honka Akatemia

EPS and Honka Akatemia drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Espoonlahden tekonurmi 2 (Espoo).