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Enyimba vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
S. Stone 87'
S. Kalu 52'
S. Ganda 90+7'
5/14/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 28Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Enyimba61%
×Draw25%
Lobi Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
1.53
Lobi Stars
0.55

Enyimba creates 178% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 114 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Enyimba
0.56
Lobi Stars
1.46

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
87%
Enyimba or Lobi Stars
75%
Draw or Lobi Stars
39%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
33%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
78%
Enyimba 2+ goals
45%
Enyimba 3+ goals
20%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
42%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
11%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
82%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.56 · 130 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.46 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Lobi Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Enyimba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Enyimba scores more
61%
level
25%
Lobi Stars scores more
13%

Enyimba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. Eze
27'
U. Williams
52'
S. Kalu
60'
S. Abubakar
66'
P. Ozor
70'
E. Ampiah
87'
S. Stone
90+7'
S. Ganda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enyimba vs Lobi Stars

Enyimba beat Lobi Stars 2-1 in NPFL on May 14, 2022.

Goals: S. Kalu (52'), S. Stone (87'), S. Ganda (90+7').

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.