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Enyimba vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
2 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
2/19/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 13Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Enyimba62%
×Draw25%
Kwara United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
1.58
Kwara United
0.57

Enyimba creates 177% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Enyimba
0.56
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
87%
Enyimba or Kwara United
75%
Draw or Kwara United
38%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
34%
Kwara United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
79%
Enyimba 2+ goals
47%
Enyimba 3+ goals
21%
Kwara United 1+ goals
43%
Kwara United 2+ goals
11%
Kwara United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
82%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.56 · 130 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Enyimba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Enyimba scores more
62%
level
25%
Kwara United scores more
13%

Enyimba at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Enyimba 2–0 Kwara United

Enyimba beat Kwara United 2-0 in NPFL on February 19, 2020.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.