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Enyimba vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Enyimba
Enyimba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
1/18/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 2Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Enyimba57%
×Draw27%
Akwa United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enyimba
1.44
Akwa United
0.61

Enyimba creates 136% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 111 away

creates per match

Enyimba
1.60
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Enyimba
0.56
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Enyimba+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enyimba ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enyimba or draw
84%
Enyimba or Akwa United
73%
Draw or Akwa United
43%

Winning margin

Enyimba wins by 2+
29%
Akwa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enyimba 1+ goals
76%
Enyimba 2+ goals
42%
Enyimba 3+ goals
18%
Akwa United 1+ goals
46%
Akwa United 2+ goals
13%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enyimba (draw refunded)
78%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enyimba at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.56 · 130 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enyimba attack 1.60 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Enyimba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Enyimba scores more
57%
level
27%
Akwa United scores more
16%

Enyimba at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Enyimba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enyimba vs Akwa United

Enyimba and Akwa United drew 0-0 in NPFL on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Enyimba International Stadium in Aba.