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Enugu Rangers vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
CANC
15:00
Enyimba
Enyimba
5/24/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 37Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Enugu Rangers56%
×Draw27%
Enyimba17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enugu Rangers
1.42
Enyimba
0.63

Enugu Rangers creates 125% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 130 away

creates per match

Enugu Rangers
1.61
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

Enugu Rangers
0.52
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw
83%
Enugu Rangers or Enyimba
73%
Draw or Enyimba
44%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
28%
Enyimba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
41%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
17%
Enyimba 1+ goals
47%
Enyimba 2+ goals
13%
Enyimba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
77%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more
56%
level
27%
Enyimba scores more
17%

Enugu Rangers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enugu Rangers host Enyimba

May 24, 2020: Enugu Rangers take on Enyimba in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enugu Rangers host Enyimba at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.