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ENPPI vs Pyramids FC — Premier League 2018

ENPPI
ENPPI
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
8/3/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

ENPPI28%
×Draw28%
Pyramids FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ENPPI
0.98
Pyramids FC
1.30

Pyramids FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 129 away

creates per match

ENPPI
1.02
Pyramids FC
1.61

allows per match

ENPPI
0.99
Pyramids FC
0.94

finishing

ENPPI+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ENPPI ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ENPPI or draw
56%
ENPPI or Pyramids FC
72%
Draw or Pyramids FC
72%

Winning margin

ENPPI wins by 2+
10%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ENPPI 1+ goals
62%
ENPPI 2+ goals
26%
ENPPI 3+ goals
8%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
73%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
37%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ENPPI (draw refunded)
39%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ENPPI at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ENPPI attack 1.02 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + ENPPI defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ENPPI scores more
28%
level
28%
Pyramids FC scores more
44%

Pyramids FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ENPPI vs Pyramids FC

Pyramids FC beat ENPPI 1-0 in Premier League on August 3, 2018.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo)).