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Enppi vs Ismaily SC — League Cup 2021

Enppi
Enppi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
1/24/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Enppi41%
×Draw36%
Ismaily SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enppi
0.92
Ismaily SC
0.60

Enppi creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Enppi
0.93
Ismaily SC
0.50

allows per match

Enppi
0.71
Ismaily SC
0.90

finishing

Enppi+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enppi ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Enppi or draw
77%
Enppi or Ismaily SC
64%
Draw or Ismaily SC
59%

Winning margin

Enppi wins by 2+
15%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Enppi 1+ goals
60%
Enppi 2+ goals
23%
Enppi 3+ goals
7%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
45%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
12%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Enppi (draw refunded)
64%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enppi at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enppi attack 0.93 + Ismaily SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Ismaily SC attack 0.50 + Enppi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Enppi scores more
41%
level
36%
Ismaily SC scores more
23%

Enppi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Enppi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enppi vs Ismaily SC

Enppi beat Ismaily SC 1-0 in League Cup on January 24, 2024.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.