Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Enisey vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
10/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Tsentralnyi Stadion
Big match
37%
Enisey
model favours
37%31%32%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Enisey37%
×Draw31%
Torpedo Moskva32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.04
Torpedo Moskva
0.94

Enisey creates 11% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.14
Torpedo Moskva
1.18

allows per match

Enisey
0.70
Torpedo Moskva
0.95

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
68%
Enisey or Torpedo Moskva
69%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
63%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
15%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
65%
Enisey 2+ goals
28%
Enisey 3+ goals
9%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
61%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
24%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
54%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.70 · 43 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.14 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.18 + Enisey defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Enisey scores more
37%
level
31%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
32%

Enisey at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Torpedo Moskva have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Enisey win just 22% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host Torpedo Moskva

October 17, 2026: Enisey take on Torpedo Moskva in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host Torpedo Moskva at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.