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Enisey vs Krasnodar 2 — First League 2018

Enisey
Enisey
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
9/27/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Central'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Enisey51%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar 223%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.54
Krasnodar 2
0.95

Enisey creates 62% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 91 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.50
Krasnodar 2
0.89

allows per match

Enisey
1.00
Krasnodar 2
1.58

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
77%
Enisey or Krasnodar 2
74%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
49%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
26%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
79%
Enisey 2+ goals
45%
Enisey 3+ goals
20%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
61%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
25%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
69%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.50 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Krasnodar 2 attack 0.89 + Enisey defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Enisey scores more
51%
level
26%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
23%

Enisey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enisey vs Krasnodar 2

Krasnodar 2 beat Enisey 1-0 in First League on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.