Enisey 5–3 FK Sokol Saratov: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

5 – 3

HT: 4 – 1

FK Sokol Saratov

10/22/2023

First League · Round 15Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Enisey53%

×Draw26%

FK Sokol Saratov21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.87

Enisey

1.53

FK Sokol Saratov

0.87

Enisey creates 76% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 52 away

1.52

creates per match

0.75

0.99

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Enisey

1.52

FK Sokol Saratov

0.75

allows per match

Enisey

0.99

FK Sokol Saratov

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

79%

Enisey or FK Sokol Saratov

74%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

47%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

27%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

78%

Enisey 2+ goals

45%

Enisey 3+ goals

20%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

58%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

22%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

71%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.99 · 125 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.52 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.53

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.75 + Enisey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Enisey scores more

53%

level

26%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

21%

Enisey at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff