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Enisey vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2024

Enisey
Enisey
Preview
15:00
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
9/5/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Tsentralnyi Stadion
Big match
44%
Enisey
model favours
44%30%26%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Enisey44%
×Draw30%
FK Neftekhimik26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enisey
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
0.85

Enisey creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

creates per match

Enisey
1.18
FK Neftekhimik
1.00

allows per match

Enisey
0.71
FK Neftekhimik
1.23

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Enisey or draw
74%
Enisey or FK Neftekhimik
70%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
56%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+
20%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals
70%
Enisey 2+ goals
34%
Enisey 3+ goals
12%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
57%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
21%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)
63%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.18 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.00 + Enisey defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Enisey scores more
44%
level
30%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
26%

Enisey at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Enisey
WDWDD
Neftekhimik
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Enisey host FK Neftekhimik

September 5, 2026: Enisey take on FK Neftekhimik in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Enisey host FK Neftekhimik at Tsentralnyi Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.