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Energie vs Buffles — Championnat National 2019

Energie
Energie
PST
15:00
Buffles
Buffles
5/9/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 26Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Energie29%
×Draw33%
Buffles38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energie
0.82
Buffles
0.99

Buffles creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

creates per match

Energie
0.93
Buffles
0.96

allows per match

Energie
1.02
Buffles
0.72

finishing

Energie+0.00on par
Buffles+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie ↓

Buffles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Energie or draw
62%
Energie or Buffles
67%
Draw or Buffles
71%

Winning margin

Energie wins by 2+
9%
Buffles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Energie 1+ goals
56%
Energie 2+ goals
20%
Energie 3+ goals
5%
Buffles 1+ goals
63%
Buffles 2+ goals
26%
Buffles 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Energie (draw refunded)
43%
Buffles (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Buffles away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.72 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie attack 0.93 + Buffles defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Buffles attack 0.96 + Energie defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Energie scores more
29%
level
33%
Buffles scores more
38%

Buffles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Energie face Buffles (Championnat National)

Championnat National returns with Energie hosting Buffles. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Energie host Buffles at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.